FINANCIAL MARKETS OVERVIEW: (January 18, 2024)

Yesterday the market's focus was on American statistics related to industrial production and consumer demand. The outcome revealed the following picture: consumer demand rates are currently near annual highs (growing by 0.6% MoM in December versus 0.3% MoM) and there is a revival in industrial processing. In combination, this greatly benefited the dollar against major currency competitors.

The rise of the overseas currency was observed against the Russian ruble as well. Yesterday the USD/RUB managed to grow by 1.25% - reaching 88.95 rubles. As noted earlier, the nearest key sentiment shift level for the pair is 90 rubles. Until the dollar surpasses it, there are still chances to move lower and conquer the 85 level.

The fuel sector had a rather eventful day. Firstly, OPEC increased its forecast for blue fuel demand in 2024-2025. According to the cartel's estimates, growth will increase by 2.25 million and 1.85 million barrels per day respectively. Then came the statement from the Houthis about an attack on a tanker in the Gulf of Aden,allowing quotes to rebound from the level of 76.83 and reach 78.74.

However, the crucial price threshold of 79.5 has not yet been reached and it is premature to talk about a current shift from bearish to bullish sentiments for oil. Moreover, there are negative factors including the overall decline in global demand and yesterday's U.S. crude oil report (API), which unexpectedly showed an increase in reserves by 0.5 million barrels against an expected decrease of 2.4 million. This is a negative factor for black gold.

Today among the important news, we highlight the ECB minutes from the latest meeting at 15:30 MSK (market expectations have already been largely factored in but attention can be paid to certain nuances in the formulations). More importantly the U.S. data block at 16:30 MSK: the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Manufacturing Index, weekly unemployment claims and new home construction starts. In the commodities section we are watching U.S. natural gas statistics - EIA reserves at 18:30 MSK and oil - EIA reserves at 19:00 MSK.

Wishing you success and thoughtful investment decisions!