Fundamental Overview for the Week (February 12-16, 2024)

The past week allowed market sharks to catch their breath after the January currency storm. The main market actor, the US Federal Reserve, remained in its quarters, studying the statistical data for the March rate decision.

This week will provide an abundance of such data - it can confidently be dubbed an inflationary five-day period. Data on consumer prices (on Tuesday) and industrial prices (on Friday) will be released for almost all major world economies.

Markets expect a decrease in overall CPI inflation in the US due to lower energy prices and a year-on-year decline in core inflation by 0.1%. A slight decrease in US PPI inflation is also expected. If the data comes out around the forecasted values, the current correction against the dollar may deepen.

On Wednesday, attention will shift to Continental Europe and the United Kingdom - the former will publish GDP data, while the latter will release consumer prices. Unlike the United States, growth figures are expected here, which could play into the hands of the Brits.

Thursday is interesting in terms of retail sales for the stars and stripes. Currently, the situation is ambiguous - the calendar indicates expectations of a decline in overall retail sales, but analysts expect a strong increase in the control group of goods, which drives the main GDP growth in the US. Additional data on jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index will further decipher the economic sentiment back in Uncle Sam's homeland.

What's important today? American consumer inflation expectations at 19:00, the head of the Bank of England at 21:00, and the US federal budget at 22:00 MSK. Plus, a series of speeches by Federal Reserve members in the evening. The week is extremely "digital" in terms of data, and without a strong swing after the weekend - you need to hold onto the helm of your financial ship firmly to avoid running aground!

Good luck and balanced investment decisions!