FUNDAMENTAL REVIEW FOR THE WEEK (15 - 19 April 2024)

The past week was completely dictated by the American dollar. The noticeable increase in Stars and Stripes consumer prices in March confirmed the thesis that inflation has not yet retreated from the Western continent. Now the Fed will most likely not be in a hurry to lower the rate, moving the decision from June to September. All this is fuel for the growth of the “American”.

The second trigger for strengthening the greenback was the expectation of Iran's response after the Israeli airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. It followed over the weekend but has not yet developed. Western partners are now restraining Israel's retaliatory actions towards Iran. If the conflict can be frozen at least for a while, interest in risks may return. Judging by the market reaction and information in the media, the majority considers this scenario to be the main one.

As for economic indicators, this week will begin very actively - on Monday, at 15.30 Moscow time, data on US retail sales will be released. The forecast is still multidirectional - the base index is positive for the dollar; the general index is negative. From stat. indicators may have an impact on the markets on Thursday - unemployment claims and the Philadelphia manufacturing activity index, but their significance is lower than that of today's report.

On Wednesday we move to Europe and Foggy Albion - they are due to report on consumer prices for March. So far, the values are bearish for both representatives.

There will also be plenty of Fed speeches in the coming week, but markets will be looking for Powell on Tuesday. This will be a meeting with the head of the VoS, Tiff Macklem, and we will talk about monetary policy and economics. The main focus is Jerome's obvious comment on the rise in inflation in March, whether he will try to “lay straw” under a potential fall in stock indicators.

Good luck and informed investment decisions!