FUNDAMENTAL REVIEW FOR THE WEEK (22 - 26 April 2024)

The past week passed in fasting mode after a powerful rising octopus of the dollar against the backdrop of rising consumer prices of the Stars and Stripes in March. Now the Fed will most likely not be in a hurry to lower the rate, moving the decision from June to September. All this is fuel for the growth of the “American”. However, “price breaks” also occur along this path, which is what we saw in the previous five-day trading period.

The second trigger for the extreme strengthening of the greenback - the Iranian-Israeli conflict was not completely frozen by Western mediators - but the intensity still dropped slightly after Iran announced its reluctance to take retaliatory actions to the recent attack near nuclear facilities in the province of Isfahan by Israel. This is still a small plus for restoring “risks”.

As for economic indicators, the main data were rather in favor of the greenback. Retail sales in the US for March were significantly higher than expected, which again suggests that we will see a decline in banking interest either towards the end of this year, or even at the beginning of next year. Some members of the Fed began to actively spread exactly this idea into the market. Unemployment claims and the index of industrial activity also came out on the side of the “American”.

In the coming week, the market's attention will be focused on PCE inflation in the States. The report will be released on Friday, so far the forecast figures are not in favor of the dollar, but we need to see what happens at the end. Before the PCE, PMI for the EU, South Caucasus and the US in the middle of the week and US GDP on Thursday will be of interest.

For the stock section, the US BigTech corporate reporting season for the 1st quarter is of interest. It is also worth noting that the Fed is beginning a week of silence before its May 1 meeting. They leave in a hawkish mood, which can be “airborne” to Jerome P during the performance.

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