Markets Fall, Fear Index Rise: Tariff Storm Gains Momentum

US Futures Collapse — Markets Close to "Black Monday"

US indices continue their rapid decline. Futures on the S&P500, Dow and Nasdaq have fallen by 1.8-2.2% in a moment. The VIX fear index has broken through 60 — the maximum since August 2024. Markets are setting themselves up for the worst day since 1987. The S&P500 has lost more than 10% in two days, erasing $5 trillion in capitalization. The next stop is again in bear market territory.

Trump Launches Tariff Wave

The US President said that he will not abandon the new tariff policy. On April 5, a 10% universal tariff came into effect, on April 9, additional charges on goods from China, Japan, the EU and Vietnam will come into effect. China has already responded with mirror measures (+34% on imports from the US), the EU is preparing coordinated actions.

Recession fears are growing

Goldman Sachs has raised the probability of a recession in 2025 to 45%, JPMorgan is already giving 60%. The Fed may cut rates 5 times during the year. Treasury yields are falling sharply.

Technology under attack

Apple, Nvidia, Amazon and Tesla are among the biggest losers. Sales are happening across the board. Caterpillar is losing ground due to the risk of a slowdown in global construction.

Oil at its lowest since 2021

Oil prices continue to fall amid tariffs and recession fears. China and the EU are reducing demand, while OPEC+ plans to increase production. Minus 10% for both contracts in a week.

Key events of the week:

In the coming week, investors' attention is still focused on trade wars:

— The start of the negotiation process on tariffs (with possible concessions - a partial restoration of "risks" is possible): On Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will become the first world leader to personally conduct trade negotiations with Trump in Washington;

— The EU will begin discussing measures on Monday, the first tariffs on American goods will come into force on Wednesday. So far, this is only a response to the US measures on metals in March. The main package of sanctions will be closer to the end of April;

— China is planning retaliatory tariffs on April 10 without a hint of dialogue.

At the end of the trading week, key inflation reports CPI (Thursday) and PPI (Friday) for March will be released. They will determine expectations for Fed rates and the immediate fate of the Western stock market.

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